Oregon vs. Washington State score prediction by college football computer model

Score prediction

The simulations clearly favor Oregon to return to the win column this week.

SP+ projects that the Ducks will defeat Washington State by an estimated score of 37 to 21, and win by a projected margin of 15.8 points in the game.

The model gives Oregon a strong 82 percent chance to win the game, compared with an 18 percent shot for the Cougars to pull off the upset.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the model is 188-178-10 straight-up (51.3%) and 173-195-8 against the spread (47.1%).

Point spread

Oregon is a 20.5 point favorite against Washington State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 62.5 points for the game.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Wazzu +20.5
• Ducks on the ML at -1613
• Bet under 62.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also favor Oregon to win outright against the Cougars.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer predictive tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick game winners.

The index projects Oregon wins the game in 94.8 percent of its simulations, while Washington State won in the remaining 5.2 percent of sims.

Based on the FPI's per-game margin for each team, the computer predicts that Oregon will defeat Washington State by 22.5 points, or 23 points by rounding up, enough to cover the 20.5 point line.

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Washington State at Oregon schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 21
Time: 12:30 p.m. Pacific
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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