2023 BMW Championship: Preview, prop picks, best bets

Just as everyone expected, the star of the show at this year's FedEx Cup playoffs is not Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm or Scottie Scheffler, but Lucas Glover.

The 43-year-old's claim to fame before this month was his major victory at the 2009 U.S. Open. On paper he looked like a one-hit wonder, but he's changed that perception this summer with terrific golf, culminating in two straight wins.

The first, at the Wyndham Championship, got Glover into the FedEx Cup playoffs at the last minute. The next, at last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship, has rocketed him into the discussion of who will win the coveted FedEx Cup.

The top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings after last week's playoff opener qualified for the BMW. After this week's tournament in the Chicago suburbs, the top 30 players in points will make it to the season-ending Tour Championship.

Our golf experts break down the BMW Championship, which begins Thursday at Olympia Fields Country Club, and provide their favorite prop picks along with best bets to win this week.

BMW CHAMPIONSHIP

Location: Olympia Fields, Ill.

Course: Olympia Fields Country Club (Par 70, 7,366 yards)

Purse: $20M (Winner: $3.6M)

Defending Champion: Patrick Cantlay

FedEx Cup leader: Jon Rahm

HOW TO FOLLOW

TV: Thursday-Friday, 2-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel); Saturday, 1-3 p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (CBS); Sunday, 12-2 p.m. (GC), 2-6 p.m. (CBS)

Streaming (ESPN+): Thursday-Sunday, 9:15 a.m.-6 p.m.

PROP PICKS

Tyrrell Hatton to finish Top 10 (+180 at DraftKings): Olympia Fields is a long par-70 where players are already saying they'll need to stay in the fairway to have a chance. Hatton is one of those players who's both long enough and accurate enough with his driver, leading to a No. 11 ranking this season in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. He's had four top-10s since May, and though he's coming off a pedestrian week at the St. Jude, Hatton is in the right form to improve on his respectable T16 finish at this course in 2020.

Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama both Top 20 (+175 at BetMGM): Here are two guys who know how to get results when the pressure is on. And the pressure is on: Spieth is precariously on the bubble at No. 27 in the FedEx Cup standings, and Matsuyama is way back at No. 47, needing a three-way tie for fourth or better to qualify for the Tour Championship. Both players had promising showings last week, and Matsuyama can rely on the course knowledge he gained during his T3 finish at Olympia Fields in 2020.

Emiliano Grillo to beat Sepp Straka in first-round 2-ball (+100 at BetMGM): Time to fade Straka after his stellar run from the John Deere (win) to The Open (T2). He finished 63rd of 70 last week and may struggle with the length of this course. Meanwhile, Grillo keeps showing up on the first pages of leaderboards this year and is in better form than his counterpart (three straight top-20s, including two top-10s).

2023 Prop Picks Record: 37-49-2

BEST BETS

McIlroy (+700 at BetMGM) used a final-round 65 last week to finish tied for third, one off the pace of Glover and Cantlay. That extended his streak of eight top-10 finishes, starting way back at the PGA Championship.

Scheffler (+700) is the co-favorite with McIlroy despite the end of his own streak of dominance. He had finished in the top 12 of 18 straight official events, and seven straight in the top five, before tying for 23rd at The Open Championship and tying for 31st last week.

Rahm (+1000) not only won the last time the tour came to Olympia Fields, he had a bogey-free, 6-under 64 in the final round. He tied for 37th last week but has a win and two second-place finishes since April.

Cantlay (+1000) will be a popular pick to three-peat at the BMW after his narrow miss at the St. Jude. Three of his past four wins on tour have come at playoff events.

Viktor Hovland (+1600) hasn't cracked the top 10 of an event since winning the Memorial Tournament in June, but he tied for 13th last week after finishing with rounds of 64, 65 and 69.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) has never won on North American soil, but starting with his sudden-death playoff loss at the Canadian Open, he has five top-10s and four top-six finishes in six starts, including T3 last week.

Glover (+3300) has a tall task ahead of him to keep his winning streak going. The last player to win three straight weeks on the PGA Tour was Tiger Woods back in 2006.

Tony Finau (+4000) may be coming off a 64th-place finish at the St. Jude, but the last time the BMW was played at Olympia Fields he placed fifth. He's won a playoff event once before, the 2021 Northern Trust.