Golf best bets: 3 props for the Valspar Championship

We were able to cash our Shane Lowry top-20 bet at +190 last week at The Players Championship, and we're back with three more props for the Valspar Championship. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Golf Resort is a tough test that demands accuracy off the tee and on approach, a tidy short game on Bermuda greens and an innate ability to scramble for par to avoid big scores. 

With that in mind, here are our three favorite props for the Valspar Championship.

Cameron Young top-20 finish (+150 ESPN BET)

Young can't be trusted with an outright bet until he proves he can win on the PGA Tour, but we love his chances of finishing inside the top 20 this week. The 26-year-old has been on fire with his irons, ranking 11th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained on approach and seventh in approaches from 175-200 yards (a crucial distance this week). 

Young has also gained strokes off the tee in seven of his eight starts this season. The American's ball-striking acumen makes him a great fit for Copperhead. His short game is always a concern, but Young should be able to contend if he has just a mediocre chipping and putting week.

Andrew Novak top-30 finish (+220 DraftKings)

Novak had a tough week at The Players Championship, shooting 74-74 to miss the cut. The 28-year-old bled strokes off the tee and on approach for the first time all season, but that can happen at such a demanding golf course like TPC Sawgrass. 

Before that missed cut, Novak finished inside the top 10 in three straight starts and gained a ton of strokes on approach alone. He's also gained strokes around the greens in five straight events and gained strokes from putting in four of his last five. This course is a much better fit for Novak's game, and his poor performance at TPC Sawgrass is creating some value on him this week. 

Tournament matchup: Matt NeSmith > Webb Simpson (-110 DK)

This was the first price that jumped out when surfing through the full tournament matchups. 

NeSmith ranks third in the field in Data Golf's course history tool thanks to a T21 and a T3 in two starts at Copperhead. His best statistical category this season has been his driving accuracy, which is a key stat here because of Copperhead's tight, tree-lined fairways. NeSmith struggles with the putter at times, but he's the most comfortable on southeast Bermuda greens as a South Carolina native. He's gained strokes on the greens in both of his starts here. 

As for Simpson, he enters the Valspar Championship in rough form. He missed the cut last week and finished T30, T39 and T66 in his three previous starts this year. Simpson's iron play and short game aren't where they need to be for him to compete on a tough golf course like Copperhead, so we like the idea of fading him this week.