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Carl Yuan has two top-five finishes in his last six starts. Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Golf best bets: Outright picks for the Mexico Open at Vidanta

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 2/19/24

After a thrilling signature event in which Hideki Matsuyama fired a final-round 62 to win The Genesis Invitational, the PGA Tour heads down south for the Mexico Open at Vidanta. This tournament has been a showdown between Tony Finau and Jon Rahm for the last two years, so with no Rahm in the field, Finau is a hefty favorite to win at +650. The next closest player on the odds board is Nicolai Hojgaard at +1600.

Finau's odds are too low for our taste, so we're looking for some better value down the board with our three outright picks for the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

Jake Knapp (+4000 BetMGM)

Vidanta Vallarta is a wide-open golf course that rewards long drivers. That brings us first to Jake Knapp, who ranks 22nd on the PGA Tour in driving distance and sixth in club head speed this season.

Knapp finished last season with five top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts on the Korn Ferry Tour. He made the jump to the PGA Tour in the fall and struggled in his first two events, but he announced his presence with a T3 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open last month. The 29-year-old has gained strokes on approach and on the greens in two straight starts. Considering how far he hits the ball and how well the rest of his game is trending, Knapp should rack up a ton of birdies this week.

Alejandro Tosti (+6600 BetMGM)

Sticking with the theme of big-hitting rookies coming from the Korn Ferry Tour, Alejandro Tosti is another perfect fit for Vidanta Vallarta. The Argentinian ranks 21st on Tour in driving distance and seventh in strokes gained: off the tee this season. His short game has been a bit sloppy to start the year, but that won't matter as much if he hits the driver well and sets up short approach shots.

Tosti won the Pinnacle Bank Championship on the KFT last season with a 9-under 62 in the final round, so we know he can go low on gettable golf courses.

Carl Yuan (+12500 BetMGM)

This is a risky bet considering Carl Yuan withdrew from the WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago with a neck injury, but that's why his odds are so high in this field. Yuan has already shown the ability to go low and contend in tournaments, as he has two top-five finishes in his last six starts.

The 26-year-old bombs it off the tee and struggles on the greens, but he's finished T18 or better in five straight starts in which he gained strokes with his putting. If Yuan's putter shows up to play this week, he'll likely be in contention throughout the weekend.

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