The American Express 2024: Favorite Outright Bets, Long Shot Picks

The third event of the new PGA Tour season begins on Thursday, Jan. 18, in La Quinta, California, with The American Express 2024. Formerly known as the Bob Hope, The American Express is contested across three separate courses in La Quinta and serves as one of the two Pro-Ams on the 2024 schedule. After all 156 golfers in the field have played one round at each of the three courses, the cut (top 65 and ties) is made Saturday evening instead of the usual cut after two rounds. The final round will be held at the Pete Dye Stadium Course on Sunday.

The 156-player field teeing it up in La Quinta this week is jampacked with talent, as 22 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking are playing the first leg of the California swing. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is joined by the likes of Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Tom Kim, Jason Day, Wyndham Clark, Chris Kirk, Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, Shane Lowry, and Will Zalatoris. Daniel Berger will also make his first start since the 2022 U.S. Open, as the four-time PGA Tour winner has missed the last 18 months due to a back injury.

Last time, Jon Rahm held off Davis Thompson to pick up his fourth victory in five starts worldwide and his second of the 2022-23 PGA Tour season. Rahm defeated Thompson by one shot with a four-under 68 during the final round to win The American Express for the second time in his career.

THE COURSE

A three-course rotation is in effect (per usual) for The American Express -- PGA West (Stadium Course), PGA West (Nicklaus Course), and La Quinta Country Club.

The Stadium Course is a 7,113-yard par-72 designed by legendary architect Pete Dye in 1986 that features over 90 sand bunkers and seven holes with water hazards.

The Nicklaus Course is a 7,159-yard par-72 designed by Jack Nicklaus in 1987 that also sees 90+ sand bunkers and tends to have the slowest putting surfaces of the three courses.

La Quinta Country Club is a 7,060-yard par-72 designed by Lawrence Hughes that opened in 1959 and went through a redesign by Damian Pascuzzo in 1999. La Quinta Country Club is located five miles from the PGA West facility.

For a complete breakdown of the three courses utilized this week, be sure to check out my course preview column from Monday!

FAVORITE BETS

Jason Day (+4000 FanDuel)

Day finally managed to snap his five-year win drought in 2023 at the Byron Nelson but didn't build off it at all, as he tallied just one top-25 finish in his final eight starts of the season and nearly finished dead-last at the Tour Championship. But the 36-year-old Aussie has shown signs of life recently, finishing T11 at Tiger Woods' Hero World Challenge and teaming up with Lydia Ko to win the Grant Thornton Invitational in December. Day also kicked off the new season with a T10 at The Sentry two weeks ago, where he finished 5th in the field in Birdie or Better Percentage.

While the recent form has been trending in the right direction, the main reasons I'm backing Day this week are due to his lofty track record on the West Coast, specifically at desert golf courses, and also on Pete Dye designs throughout his career. Day has won the Farmers Insurance Open (California) twice in his career, along with the 2014 WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship (Arizona). He also finished T5 at the WM Phoenix Open last season and has a pair of top-10s at the Shriners Children's Open (Las Vegas). Day has only played The American Express twice, but he finished T18 here last year after sitting third through 36 holes to kick-start his comeback campaign.

Perhaps most impressive though is Day's history on Pete Dye-designed courses. He captured his lone major championship at the 2015 PGA Championship (Whistling Straits) and also won THE PLAYERS Championship and the WGC-Dell Match Play in 2016. Among all players in the field, Day ranks fourth in SG: Total on Pete Dye courses over the last 50 rounds.

Among Day's 13 career PGA Tour wins, four have occurred at courses with Bermudagrass putting surfaces. Last season, Day gained at least three strokes putting in all four of his West Coast starts, including a whopping 4.93 at this event. We also know that Day can get hot enough to win a birdie fest, as he reached 23-under to close out the Byron Nelson last year. There are too many reasons to like Day's chances this week, and there's no way I pass him up at 40/1 odds.

Chris Kirk (+5000 BetRivers Enhanced)

I was on Kirk last week in Honolulu, and he was in contention again heading into the weekend before being derailed by an ice-cold putter. The 2024 Sentry winner lost over two strokes putting Saturday and 1.74 on Sunday but still finished T18 thanks to his spectacular tee-to-green play.

Kirk gained a massive 7.74 strokes on approach last week, which is more than he accrued during his wins at The Sentry and the 2023 Honda Classic. In fact, it was the most he's gained with his irons since the 2019 WM Phoenix Open. He also gained 4.23 strokes off the tee for his best performance in that department since the 2016 WGC Bridgestone Invitational! What I'm trying to get at is Kirk is playing some of the best golf of his career to kick off the new season, and while it's certainly a small sample size, I don't know how I can pass him up at 50/1 odds.

While it's been a mixed bag for Kirk at The American Express, he does have three top-16 finishes in 10 career starts, including a T3 last year where he gained 6.35 strokes ball striking and 1.97 strokes putting. These low-scoring events on shorter courses always seem to be up Kirk's alley, and four of his six career PGA Tour wins have occurred on Bermudagrass putting surfaces. The upside remains evident, and I'll take my chances on Kirk one more time this week.

LONG SHOT PICKS

Erik van Rooyen (+11000 FanDuel)

EvR picked up his second PGA Tour win in December at the World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico and has been striking the hell out of the ball since the end of the summer. The South African native ranks seventh among all players in the field in SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds and has gained over four strokes to the field in five of his past eight measured events worldwide. He also ranks 1st in the field in Birdie or Better Percentage and 18th in Opportunities Gained.

While a T22 at The Sentry and T52 at the Sony Open to kick off the new season won't jump off the page, the underlying numbers remain positive for the 33-year-old veteran. Despite the iron play being ice cold in his first outing at Kapalua, he still gained 4.74 strokes putting for the tournament and was positive on the greens all four days. Sadly, those two flip-flopped the following week in Honolulu, as he gained 4.48 strokes on his approach shots but lost strokes on the greens in three of the four rounds. Both categories have been strengths for EvR over the last few months, and I'm willing to gamble at triple-digit odds that he puts it together this week.

EvR has also proven capable enough to win a low-scoring event, as he reached 27-under in Mexico and took down the 2021 Barracuda Championship for his maiden PGA Tour victory, which is an event that rewards aggressive play. With a T6 at this event last year and a T13 at THE PLAYERS Championship (Pete Dye design) in 2022, this seems like a prime setup for the South African.

Sam Ryder (+20000 FanDuel)

Ryder played fabulously consistent golf down the stretch last season, as he made the cut in his final nine starts and racked up four top-15 results. While the 34-year-old hasn't played in an event since the RSM Classic in mid-November, I thought 200/1 odds were ridiculous for one of the top players in my model for this week.

Out of 156 players in the field, Ryder ranked 8th in my model, as he sits fourth in SG: Approach, eighth in Birdie or Better Percentage, ninth in Opportunities Gained, 10th from 150-175 yards, and 23rd in SG: PGA West (Stadium Course) over the last 36 rounds. Ryder has been on a heater with his irons, as he's gained in 11 of his past 14 measured starts. Nine of those 11 were gains of over three strokes to the field average, suggesting he can pop enough to take down a low-scoring event.

Not only have the irons been spectacular, but the putter has also been a weapon for Ryder when he's got it going right. Ryder ranks 22nd in putts from 15-20 feet and 33rd from 20-25 feet over the last 36 rounds, and he's gained strokes in eight of his past 12 events.

On a course where second shots and putting seem to mean everything, Ryder feels like a splendid target from way down the betting board. Don't forget that three of the last five winners of this event have been crazy long shots.