Brewers pitcher '50-50' to be ready for Opening Day

Brewers left-hander Wade Miley may not be ready for Opening Day, manager Pat Murphy tells Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. 

Murphy said it’s a “50-50” shot that Miley is ready for the opener but declined to provide any details. “We’ll let you know more in about 10 days,” he said.

It’s a vaguely ominous update that comes out of nowhere, as there hasn’t been any previous reporting to suggest that anything was up with Miley. He hasn’t yet appeared in a spring training contest, but that’s true of a lot of pitchers at this relatively early stage of the spring.

Meaningful conclusions can’t be drawn without more information, but the rotation depth in Milwaukee is weaker than it has been in a long time, so any kind of uncertainty will be concerning. 

Brewers fans have been able to enjoy a staff fronted by co-aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff for the past few years, but that won’t be the case in 2024. 

Burnes has been traded to the Orioles while Woodruff will be out for much of the year recovering from shoulder surgery.

On paper, the rotation now projects to be fronted by Freddy Peralta, followed by some combination of Miley, Jakob Junis, Colin Rea, DL Hall, Joe Ross, Aaron Ashby and Janson Junk, with plenty of uncertainty in that group. 

Junis has done some solid work of late but mostly in a swing role, having not topped 112 innings since 2019. Rea had a decent season in Milwaukee last year but that was his first meaningful big-league action since 2016. Hall is not too far removed from being a notable prospect, but there are concerns about his control and workload. 

Ross didn’t pitch in the big leagues in the past two years due to Tommy John surgery, the second of his career. Ashby missed all of last year after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his throwing shoulder. Junk has just 32 big league innings and a 4.42 ERA in his Triple-A work.

Amid all of that uncertainty, Miley was going to be one of the more reliable options, despite his history. Now 37 years old, he hasn’t topped 170 innings since 2015. Only twice since 2017 has he thrown more than last year’s 120 1/3 innings. 

He missed time last year due to a left lat strain and left elbow discomfort but still made 23 starts, though elbow and shoulder issues limited him to just 37 frames the year prior.

While there’s no clarity on what’s currently holding back Miley or how serious it is, his personal injury history and the lack of established rotation options is undoubtedly a situation worth monitoring for the Brewers. 

Despite the losses of Burnes and Woodruff, the club still aims to contend this year, having spent money on players like Junis, Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sanchez to help them defend their division title.

If the club eventually decides it needs further additions, there are still options available in free agency at this late stage of the winter. 

It would be a shock to see the low-spending Brewers pursue a marquee name like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, but a run at someone like Michael Lorenzen, Jake Odorizzi or old friend Eric Lauer isn’t out of the question. 

RosterResource lists this year’s club payroll at $109M. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club had an Opening Day payroll of $119M last year and $132M the year prior.

There could perhaps be some powder dry there for another move, even though we’re now in March. 

Another alternative could be for the club to turn to its prospect depth. Robert Gasser and Jacob Misiorowski are two of the club’s most notable prospects, though neither is on the 40-man roster and Misiorowski has made just five starts above High-A.