2023-24 NHL team preview: Toronto Maple Leafs

LAST SEASON

Where to begin? Better pull up a chair. The Toronto Maple Leafs never lack for drama but, even by their standard, they delivered a soap opera for the ages last season. They entered 2022-23 expected to sleepwalk through the year with their loaded roster, and by early winter they were doing just that, locked into a playoff matchup with the Tampa Bay Lightning months in advance. General manager Kyle Dubas saddled up and went against his analytics-leaning instincts at the trade deadline, chasing down intangibles, adding Stanley Cup winners Luke Schenn and Ryan O’Reilly while beefing up with heavy-hitting Noel Acciari and Jake McCabe.

The Leafs parachuted six new regulars into their starting lineup by early March. It took a while for the retooled team to gel, but come playoff time the Leafs found something they’d lacked for two decades: a spine. When the Lightning pushed them, they pushed back. The Leafs won three road games in Round 1, all in overtime, one after rallying from a 4-1 third-period deficit. They slayed their minotaur, knocking off the Lightning in six games, ending a 19-year playoff series win drought.

But the parade planning halted shortly thereafter. The Leafs ran into the nasty buzzsaw that was the Florida Panthers, struggled to solve piping-hot goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky and got bounced from Round 2 in five games. So much for that breakthrough. Extreme team turnover ensued. Dubas, in need of a new contract, lost a power struggle with president Brendan Shanahan and was shown the door. With Dubas out before eventually heading to Pittsburgh, Toronto turned to an experienced GM to keep the win-now machine churning: Brad Treliving, who’d just exited the Calgary Flames. He had mere weeks to get acclimated before he brought in a slew of new faces, including gritty forwards Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi and Ryan Reaves and puck-moving defenseman John Klingberg.

Whew. Still with me? It was quite the offseason in the Big Smoke, topped off by superstar Auston Matthews signing a four-year extension that will make him hockey’s highest-paid player beginning next season.

The question now is…are Treliving’s Leafs as good as Dubas’ Leafs?

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Tyler Bertuzzi, LW
Max Domi, LW
John Klingberg, D
Ryan Reaves, RW
Martin Jones, G
Simon Benoit, G
Dylan Gambrell, C
Max Lajoie, D
William Lagesson, D

Departures

Ryan O’Reilly, C (Nsh)
Luke Schenn, D (Nsh)
Michael Bunting, LW (Car)
Noel Acciari, RW (Pit)
Alexander Kerfoot, LW (Ari)
Justin Holl, D (Det)
Wayne Simmonds, RW (UFA
Zach Aston-Reese, LW (UFA)
Erik Gustafsson, D (NYR)
Jordie Benn, D (UFA)
Victor Mete, D (Phi)
Carl Dahlstrom, D (SHL)
Mac Hollowell, D (NYR)
Filip Kral, D (Czechia)
Erik Kallgren, G (NJ)
Radim Zohorna, LW (Pit)
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, C (KHL)

OFFENSE

Any team built around Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares will fill the net in perpetuity, and 2022-23 was no exception. Even though he regressed from his 60-goal output of the season prior, Matthews still buried 40 goals, as did Nylander, while Marner finished one point shy of 100. The Leafs have finished top-five in the NHL in 5-on-5 scoring chances per 60 minutes in seven consecutive seasons – a.k.a their seven seasons since Matthews and Marner debuted in the NHL. After icing the NHL’s top power play in 2021-22, Toronto slotted in second last season. Each of those seasons coincided with assistant coach Spencer Carbery taking over the power play, so it remains to be seen if Guy Boucher can coax the same level of brilliance out of this group. Chances are, given Toronto’s top-of-lineup personnel, scoring should remain a strength.

The Leafs may look like a shallower group at forward one through 12 given all their offseason departures, but they were top-heavy last season, too. The Core Four – sorry, Mr. Treliving, I know you hate the term – pumped home 146 of Toronto’s 278 goals last season, good for 52.5 percent. It’s possible the Leafs get better-distributed scoring this season, particularly if the early-camp experiment of placing Nylander on the third line holds up. Bertuzzi, signed for one year, flourished as a Boston Bruins rental last spring and proved he can hang with top-end players. He’ll thus get the first look alongside Matthews and Marner and should adequately replace Michael Bunting’s 23 goals. Max Domi isn’t known for his defensive acumen but brings a useful mix of secondary scoring and sandpaper.

It’s possible the defensively leaky Klingberg will take the torch from Jake Gardiner and Justin Holl to become the new error-prone scapegoat on defense, but Klingberg should remain a useful offensive contributor from the point. Even just in the past two seasons, with his play declining, he ranked near the top of the league in primary assists per 60 on the power play. If he replaces Morgan Rielly on the No. 1 unit, Klingberg will provide a superior shooting threat.

DEFENSE

Early in the Matthews/Marner era, the Leafs played electric, firewagon hockey, thinking little about defense and trading chances with opponents. That identity shifted a couple of years ago, however; the Leafs became one of the better defensive teams in the league, and their highest win and point totals in franchise history followed in the past two seasons as a result.

But if you find yourself asking: Then why did they make me so nervous in the playoffs? You’re on the mark. When Dubas eschewed a play-driving-oriented approach to his lineup at the trade deadline, the new, scrappier Leafs slipped defensively. They were bottom-third in the NHL in expected goals against per 60 from March 1 through the end of the regular season. Only two of the 16 qualifying teams allowed more 5-on-5 scoring chances per 60 than Toronto during the playoffs.

And that was with Schenn playing the best defensive hockey of his career and the 2018-19 Selke Trophy winner O’Reilly out there. They play for the Nashville Predators now. This Toronto team looks slower and more suspect defensively than it was a year ago. T.J. Brodie, playing his quiet, mistake-limiting game, remains the conscience of the D-corps. Rielly has never graded out as a strong defensive defenseman despite playing significant minutes. McCabe looked shaky during the playoffs. Giordano will turn 40 next week and appeared to lose a step or two last season. How much does he have left? Klingberg isn’t in town for his shutdown ability, to say the least. Whether the blueline ends up being a liability might depend on whether Timothy Liljegren can ascend to a larger role. While he hasn’t consistently passed the eye test, the underlying numbers suggest he’s a useful player. The Leafs outscored opponents 50-31 and generated 53.54 percent of the scoring chances with Liljegren on the ice at 5-on-5 last season, albeit in sheltered minutes.

Toronto’s best defensive asset: its star forwards’ commitment to defense, particularly Marner’s. He has emerged as one of the league’s most impactful all-around players, killing penalties, blocking shots and intercepting pucks. Marner’s NHL-best 104 takeaways last season were 12 more than the closest player’s total.

GOALTENDING

Dubas rolled the dice on two reclamation projects in Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray last season. They took turns (a) flashing brilliance and (b) getting hurt before Samsonov gradually pulled away from Murray. By season’s end, Murray was stashed on Robidas Island and Samsonov was entrenched as Toronto’s starter after delivering the best season of his career. He cracked the NHL’s top 10 in goals saved above average per 60, and his .919 save percentage ranked sixth in the league.

While Samsonov was quietly consistent in the regular season, posting an SV% of .913 or better in all but one month, he was an adventure in the playoffs, particularly at home. When he got hurt mid-series in Round 2 against the Panthers, rookie Joseph Woll stepped in and immediately looked like the better goaltender. He had sizzled in his brief regular-season duty, going 6-1 with a .932 SV%, and looked surprisingly comfortable being thrown into the fire with Toronto facing elimination. Woll has the mental fortitude, size and athleticism to become the Leafs’ long-term No. 1 netminder.

If there’s any doubt as to whether Toronto believes Woll can be the guy: look at Samsonov’s contract. He and the Leafs couldn’t agree on an extension and went to arbitration this summer. He’s set to walk as a UFA next summer. The one-year contract didn’t exactly look like a vote of confidence. Samsonov opens the season as the starter, but Woll will get every opportunity to steal the job. He is no longer waivers exempt, so the Martin Jones signing is insurance rather than a threat to Woll. Whatever happens: for the first time in a while, goaltending looks like a strength for Toronto.

COACHING

Sheldon Keefe remains one of the most successful regular-season coaches in NHL history. His .678 points percentage ranks No. 1 all-time among bench bosses with 250 or more games. And yet, when the Leafs have been pushed by more hardened and experienced opponents in the playoffs, Keefe has often looked overmatched, more reactive than proactive. It took him almost an entire series last spring to realize Justin Holl was a black hole, on the ice for almost every Tampa Bay goal, and bench him. Keefe has struggled to make adjustments against more experienced coaches, seemingly not knowing when and when not to keep Matthews and Marner together. The ice beneath Keefe’s feet is thus pretty thin despite the fact he coached the two winningest Leaf teams ever in the past two years.

Keefe did receive an extension from his new GM Treliving, but keep in mind that the Leafs are no longer paying Mike Babcock’s salary. Paying out Keefe in the event of a firing would represent chump change for this franchise. The extension was likely a chess move to quell year-long media speculation rather than a commitment to keeping Keefe around. His seat remains hot.

ROOKIES

Woll is still Calder Trophy eligible and should function as Toronto’s 1B goaltender at worst all season. He’ll likely be Toronto’s most impactful rookie – unless Matthew Knies steals the show. Knies turned pro late last season after his decorated college career at the University of Minnesota and looked NHL-worthy immediately upon arrival. He was strong on the puck, showed good two-way instincts and even flashed dazzling hands for a player his size. He doesn’t have to start the year in the NHL, but would take a small upset for him not to. Knies doesn’t have a superstar ceiling but possesses the versatile skill set to play anywhere in the lineup, from a scoring line to a shutdown line.

No other rookie projects to make a major early impact for Toronto in 2023-24. Easton Cowan, perceived to be a reach in the 2023 Draft’s first round, has impressed in camp but should soon head back to major junior. Keep an eye on Topi Niemela, though. He’s the Leafs’ best blueline prospect, he’s playing in North America now, and a spot could open up if Giordano’s age gets the better of him.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Is this defense corps good enough? Toronto’s blueline looked overwhelmed by the Panther forecheck last spring…and that was when Schenn was still around. This group has gotten weaker on paper. Treliving insists he’s happy with his D-corps but has been known to build big, sturdy bluelines in the past. How long until he pursues a splashy addition?

2. Does William Nylander re-sign? Nylander, one of the NHL’s breeziest personalities, is in no rush. He seems perfectly content to go to market and play 2023-24 as an ‘own rental.’ But will the Leafs try to lock him up early to avoid the distraction of year-round contract talk in the media? With Matthews signing an extension at a surprisingly reasonable AAV when factoring in the projected salary-cap increase, the Leafs can afford Nylander. Whether they re-sign him might depend on whether they decide to allocate their resources toward their defense instead.

3. How long is Sheldon Keefe’s leash? Keefe and Treliving claim they hit it off over the offseason and are in a good place to start the year. That’s nice. So what happens if the Leafs play .500 hockey in October? It didn’t feel like a coincidence when Toronto hired Boucher, who has 423 games and two Conference Final appearances on his coaching resume. He’ll be ready to assume head coaching duties should the Leafs decide on making an early-season change.

PREDICTION

The Leafs remain powered by superstar-grade talents still in their primes. Their goaltending is actually something to get excited about. Knies could be a boon if he sticks as a rookie. Feared enforcer Ryan Reaves will ensure no one takes liberties with Toronto’s stars. This is obviously a strong team and it should accumulate its customary 100 points or more pretty easily. Given the talent exodus in Boston, Florida’s injury problems and Tampa’s aging core, the Leafs arguably have their best shot in years at winning the Atlantic Division.

But is this a better team than the last couple Dubas assembled? Probably not. The Leafs’ defensive makeup doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. They’re likely to allow more scoring chances this season. If they don’t fortify their back end between now and April, they could wind up bounced from the playoffs early again.

_____