A deep-dive into the Capitals' salary cap situation

Onto the defense where all but one player is on an expiring deal this season. Orlov is the most prominent of the group and is also coming off a career season offensively. A few years ago, he was logging upwards of 23 minutes a night but over the last two years, that has dipped to the point where his usage is more of a second-pairing player which is notable. He’ll be 32 next season and while the offensive boost helps, that should more or less offset the reduced role. Orlov will still get a long-term deal but if he prioritizes getting as long of a deal as possible, there’s a chance that the AAV could come in slightly below his current rate. Otherwise, a medium-term agreement should cost somewhere in the $5.5M to $6M range.

Jensen also had the best year of his career and provided some value on what previously looked like a deal that was well above market value. Even so, his long-term track record is that of a third-pairing player and that will be hard to shake. The fact he’s right-handed certainly helps (the side that’s typically in higher demand) but it’s hard to forecast a raise at this point. A similar season to 2021-22 could help him land a similar AAV next summer though. Gustafsson, van Riemsdyk, and Irwin are all veteran depth players who aren’t going to command sizable raises at this point of their careers. It’s possible that van Riemsdyk will eclipse the $1M mark but he shouldn’t get much more than that while the other two are likely to be close to the minimum moving forward.

Signed through 2023-24

F Anthony Mantha ($5.7M, UFA)
F Tom Wilson ($5.167M, UFA)

The Capitals paid a high price to acquire Mantha and they haven’t been rewarded for it thus far as the veteran has missed most of the last two seasons due to injuries. When he has played, he hasn’t produced at the level of someone at his current AAV either. Some of that again is injury-related but it’s safe to say that they haven’t got what they bargained for from Mantha so far. The same can’t be said for Wilson. His contract seemed like a considerable overpayment at the time to many but that isn’t the case now. Despite the penalty and suspension trouble he gets into, he produces at a high enough rate to make him a true top-six power forward which is something that is very hard to find and is always in high demand. At this point, he should surpass the $6M mark on his next deal.

Signed through 2024-25

F Nicklas Backstrom ($9.2M, UFA)
F Nic Dowd ($1.3M, UFA)
F Evgeny Kuznetsov ($7.8M, UFA)
G Charlie Lindgren ($1.1M, UFA)
F T.J. Oshie ($5.75M, UFA)

Backstrom picked the right time to sign this contract as it came just before the pandemic shutdown that has since flattened the cap; had he waited, the AAV almost certainly would have been lower. His hip injury situation has been well-documented and he’ll begin the year on LTIR. It wouldn’t be surprising if he was there for the entire year which would give Washington some extra space to work with this season. Kuznetsov has had some ups and downs which makes the value he provides each year range from poor to solid. He’s coming off a year that saw him produce at nearly a point per game and if he stays near that mark, they’ll get good value moving forward. With Backstrom out long-term, there’s extra pressure on Kuznetsov now.

Oshie saw his output dip sharply last season on a points-per-game basis which wasn’t entirely unexpected as he’s now 35. He’s in the back half of the long-term deal he signed which provided Washington with some cap-friendly years and now they’re entering the years that won’t be so team-friendly. Dowd is being paid as a fourth-line center but his usage has been closer to that of a third liner the last couple of seasons and as someone that can kill penalties, win draws, and can score at a decent depth rate, the Capitals are doing quite well with this deal. He’ll be 35 when this deal is up though so chances are that he won’t be able to command much more than this on his next contract.

Lindgren has spent the majority of his career in the minors but is coming off a strong season in the minors that was good enough to land him a three-year guarantee. Notably, the full amount can be buried in the AHL without cap penalty if he struggles but if he can give them 20-25 serviceable starts, Washington will be pleased with the contract and he’ll be boosting his value for his next trip through free agency.

Signed through 2025-26 or longer

D John Carlson ($8M through 2025-26)
G Darcy Kuemper ($5.25M through 2026-27)
F Alex Ovechkin ($9.5M through 2025-26)

Ovechkin surprised many with a 50-goal season at the age of 36 as his hunt to become the leading scorer in NHL history continues. He continues to be a top-line winger and as long as that continues, he’ll provide a good return on this contract. Even when he’s not scoring quite at that level, for all the good he has brought to this franchise, they’re probably not going to mind if his deal is an above-market one.

Carlson isn’t the best player in his own end at times but he remains an elite option offensively. At a time when the top-paid blueliners are making a few million more than he is while producing considerably fewer points, he’ll continue to be on a below-market deal. He’ll be 36 when this deal is up and at that point, he’ll likely have slowed down a little which will likely lower his cap hit from where it is now.

Kuemper comes over from Cup-winning Colorado and will be the undisputed starter with the type of contractual security that he has yet to have in his 10-year NHL career. He isn’t a high-end No. 1 but as long as he can provide some stability and not some wildly inconsistent performances (which was an issue for their previous tandem), they’ll be fine. For context, a league-average save percentage would be an upgrade and likely worth a few points in the standings.

Buyouts

None

Retained salary transactions

None

Best value: Carlson
Worst value: Mantha

Looking ahead

A lot of what Washington will or won’t be able to do this season will be dependent on Backstrom. He wants to return and if he can, they’ll have to shed some money. If he can’t (or they make it that he’ll be back for the playoffs), then they will be able to add a piece or two in-season which will put them in a better situation than several other potential playoff teams in the Metropolitan Division.

Next summer will be fascinating with more than half of their team (and all but one defenseman) needing new contracts. That will be a window for them to potentially shake up their core or if they choose to keep who they have now, they’ll have some flexibility to keep the ones they want around. Backstrom’s situation will loom large at that point as well.

From a long-term perspective, there are some expensive contracts for veterans which isn’t great. However, there are few long-term commitments so GM Brian MacLellan will have some future flexibility at his disposal. It’s an old roster for sure but Washington’s long-term cap outlook is definitely manageable at this point.