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Diego Simeone. Gonzalo Moreno/Getty

Champions League betting: Dortmund vs. Atletico Madrid odds, predictions, picks for Tuesday 4/16

Originally posted on Action Network | By Brad Cunningham | Last updated 4/15/24

Atletico Madrid look to close out things here in the second leg in Germany and get to the semifinals.

Dortmund were pretty poor in the first leg in Spain, which isn't that shocking given how their season has gone. They somehow made it out of the group of death with PSG, Newcastle and AC Milan, but were relatively lucky to do so and have been pretty average in the Bundesliga as well. They are going to need to be much better in build up and at breaking down Atletico's defensive block than they were in the first match.

Atletico Madrid put in a fantastic performance in the first leg and could have very easily been up two or three goals here heading into the second leg. These are scenarios that Diego Simeone lives for with Atletico being able to sit deep and defend a one goal lead. It's been a little over five years since Atletico made it to the Champions League semifinals, but they are in a really good position to get back there.

Let's dive into Dortmund vs. Atletico Madrid.

Dortmund vs. Atletico Madrid Odds

Tuesday, April 16, 3 p.m. ET, Paramount+

Dortmund Odds	+120
Atletico Madrid Odds	+210
Draw	+260
Over / Under	2.5 -163 / +130

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dortmund

The fatal flaw of Borussia Dortmund got exposed in the first leg against Atletico Madrid. They are a much better team playing without the ball and in transition, rather than being a team that builds out of the back. They tried to build out of the back in the first half against Atletico, but ended up turning it over in their own half countless times and two of them led to Atletico Madrid's goals for the match.

It's been a real problem under Edin Terzic. They often are indecisive on the ball when they are trying to build out of the back, so either teams are able to win the ball off them or they are forced to play a lot of long balls up the pitch. It was very evident in the first leg that they were never going to be able to build up with a lot of success, so they started to play more direct after the first couple of errors.

The other problem in this match is, what if Atletico sit in their famous low defensive block and dares Dortmund to break them down? Dortmund don't face a lot of teams in the Bundesliga who will play passively and sit in a low block for the entire match. Atletico did sit off after going up 2-0 and Dortmund did absolutely nothing against them. Outside of the Haller goal, which was a pretty fortunate deflection to hit for the finish, Dortmund did not register a shot with an xG rating over 0.10 and six of their 12 shots for the match came from outside the box.

The reason that happened is because the profiles of Dortmund's attackers are built to hit teams in transition, not break down defensive blocks. Now that Sebastien Haller is out until the middle of May, they have nobody that can win aerial duals inside the box, so it's really hard for me to see how they improve off of their first leg performance.

Atletico Madrid

Even though Atletico Madrid pressed Dortmund really effectively in the first leg, I have a really hard time seeing Simeone not reverting back to his roots and having Atletico sit deep in this match.

Atletico have been playing out of a 3-5-2 and dropping five guys into the last line when they are out of possession, but something changed in the second half against Dortmund. When out of possession, Atletico switched to a 4-4-2 with an aim at having more cover defending the wide areas against Dortmund's good ball carrying wingers.

In their 3-1 win over Girona this weekend, Simeone lined his team up in a 4-4-2 to start the match for just the first time this season. Girona did end up creating over two expected goals, but half of that came on a tap in the second minute of the match. Other than that, Atletico limited them to a lot of low quality efforts and did a good job keeping them out of the middle of the pitch.

For the season, Atletico's defense has been incredibly good at keeping teams out of their penalty area. They are a passive team by nature, allowing the second-most final third touches in La Liga, but they are only allowing a 24.1% final third to box entry conversion rate, which is the best mark in Spain. That makes it difficult for teams to play through the middle and has ultimately led them to only allowing 1.05 npxG per 90 minutes.

Dortmund vs. Atletico Madrid

Prediction

Atletico Madrid are a team that is built to play with a lead because of their out of possession structure. Diego Simeone has time and time again in these scenarios had his team sit off and play a low defensive block to defend the lead. The switch to a 4-4-2 will allow Atletico to defend the wide areas a little better against Dortmund's wingers, just like they did in the first leg.

Dortmund really don't have the attackers available to breakdown Atletico Madrid's defensive block, which was very evident in the first leg when they only created 0.9 expected goals. Dortmund's a team that is much better playing without the ball and playing in transition, so if we have a repeat of the first leg where Atletico Madrid allow them to control 66% of the possession, then Dortmund are really going to struggle to create chances.

I think it's going to be really hard for Dortmund to put the ball in the back of the net twice, so I like the value on Dortmund under 1.5 goals at -120.